Same tail. Different distributions.

Does 5% of pay follow 5% of cost?

The top 5% of people account for half of US medical spending. That is real, and it is the pile on The 5%. This page asks the next question: do 5% of physicians and hospital executives take 50% of the pay? No. Pay is skewed. It is not that skewed.

The 5% · The cut · People for half · Percentiles · Why · Evidence

Top 5% of patients50% of spending
Top 5% of physicians22% of physician pay
Top 5% of hospital CEOs~34% of CEO pay
The 5/50 rule does not hold for pay.

Half of physician earnings takes the top ~22% of physicians, not the top 5%. Half of nonprofit hospital CEO pay takes the top ~15%. Patient spending is roughly twice as concentrated as CEO pay and more than twice as concentrated as physician pay.

Share of dollars at the top

Orange is patient spending. Green is physician pay. The 50% line is the claim. Only the patient bar clears it at 5%.

Share of total dollars going to the top of each group

Patient spending Physician pay
Top 5%
49.7%
22.4%
Top 10%
65.9%
32.6%
Top 1%
21.7%
10.0%

Patient spending: AHRQ MEPS Statistical Brief 560, 2022. Physician pay: Gottlieb et al., QJE 2025, Table II means, physicians ages 40–55 in 2017. CEO top 5% is estimated from the measured top-decile share (PLOS One 2024).

How many people to get to 50% of the dollars?

Inverse of the last chart. Physician figure interpolates between the measured top 10% (32.6% of pay) and top 25% (53.8% of pay). CEO figure inverts a Pareto fit to the 2019 top-decile share.

Smallest top share of people whose dollars add up to half

Patient spending
5%
Hospital CEO pay
~15%
Physician pay
~22%

Patient: MEPS 2022. Physician: interpolation of Gottlieb Table II. CEO: estimated from Mulligan, Nikpay, and Young, PLOS One 2024.

Full percentile table

Top groupPatient spendingPhysician payHospital CEO pay
Top 1%21.7%10.0%—
Top 5%49.7%22.4%~34% (est.)
Top 10%65.9%32.6%43.9%
Top 25%—53.8%—
Top 50%97.2%77.3%—
Bottom 50%2.8%22.7%~1% (bottom decile)

Physician pay from Table II means, Gottlieb, Polyakova, Rinz, Shiplett, and Udalova, QJE 2025. CEO pay from 868 nonprofit hospital CEOs in 2019 (Mulligan, Nikpay, Young, PLOS One 2024). Top-decile CEO mean was $5.62 million.

What the physician tail looks like

Physicians ages 40–55 in 2017. Means are for everyone above the cutoff.

CutoffMean
All physicians—$405,000
Top 5%$960,000$1,817,000
Top 1%$1,937,000$4,051,000

The top 1% averages $4,051,000 — 10× the typical physician — but that group is only 1% of doctors and 10% of doctor pay. 85% of their income is non-W-2 (practice ownership), versus 6% for the average physician. They are 6× more likely to be neurosurgeons and much less likely to be in primary care.

Why spending is 5/50 and pay is not

A year of medical cost can include a hospital stay, a specialty-drug course, and devices — not just a paycheck. MEPS high spenders are older, have multiple chronic conditions, and split their bills across ambulatory care, inpatient stays, and prescriptions in roughly equal thirds. Physician take-home pay is only 8.6% of national health spending. The rest is facilities, drugs, devices, insurance overhead, and other labor. See what that pile actually bought.

If you widen the pool, it still fails

Pooling ~1 million physicians with ~1,600 nonprofit hospital CEOs barely moves the needle: CEOs are too few. The top 5% of that combined group is still almost entirely high-earning physicians, taking about 22% of combined pay.

Widening further to all healthcare workers goes the other way. Physicians are ~5–6% of the healthcare workforce and receive on the order of one-fifth of healthcare labor compensation — a lot relative to headcount, but not half. Getting to 50% of healthcare labor pay would take a much broader slice than physicians plus executives: more like the top 15–20% of workers, including APPs, pharmacists, and higher-paid nurses.

Pareto shape, in one number

A Pareto tail where the top 5% take 50% of the mass has shape parameter α ≈ 1.3. Physician earnings in the top half fit α ≈ 2 (Gottlieb et al. note that the mean above each cutoff is almost exactly twice the cutoff). Hospital CEO pay sits in between, around α ≈ 1.6. Same family of distributions; different weight in the tail.

Physician pay is still highly unequal: the top quarter of doctors take 54% of physician earnings. Hospital CEO pay at the largest systems has pulled away from direct-care wages (Baker Institute: 51:1 at top-decile hospitals in 2022). Those are real concentration facts. They are a different phenomenon from the 5% of patients who generate half of annual spending.

Sources on Evidence · hospital CEO pay · MEPS concentration. Comparisons mix years (MEPS 2022, physician tax data 2017, CEO 990s 2019/2022) because those are the best administrative sources. Rank concentration is stable enough year to year that the qualitative gap is not an artifact of the date mix. CEO top-5% share and “people needed for 50%” are estimated from published decile means, not a microdata Lorenz curve.